2013年1月华北地区重霾污染过程SO2和NOx的CMAQ源同化模拟研究

以2006年中国地区的INTEX-B排放清单为基础,采用CMAQ模式污染源同化方法,反演更新了2013年1月重霾污染过程华北地区的SO₂和NO_x排放源;应用WRF-CMAQ模式以及2006年INTEX-B初始排放源和2013年1月改进的排放源,分别模拟了1月9-15日和28-31日两次持续重霾污染过程的SO₂和NO₂浓度,并与华北地区47个环境监测站点实测值进行对比,重点分析了基于初始源和同化反演源的模拟效果及其改进原因;本文亦采用2012年清华大学编制的东亚地区MEIC排放清单评估了SO₂和NO_x同化反演源的合理性.分析结果表明:①CMAQ模式污染源同化方法可适用于重霾污染过程,即采用同化反演源模拟的SO₂、NO₂浓度时空变化特征与实测值较一致,而且可反映SO₂、NO_x排放源强的动态变化特征;②基于同化反演源的SO₂、NO₂浓度模拟效果明显优于2006年INTEX-B排放源,其时间变化趋势与实测值较一致,而且可模拟重霾污染过程SO₂、NO₂浓度的峰值;③采用反演源模拟的SO₂、NO₂浓度空间区分布特征与实测值较一致,而且可较好反映重污染区的极值分布特征;④经污染源同化改进后SO₂、NO₂模拟浓度与实测值的相关系数有所提高,误差明显减小;SO₂的改进效果略优于NO₂,这与污染源对两种污染物浓度的影响差异有关;⑤初始源中SO₂、NO_x排放源的空间分布和强度与2012年清华大学编制的排放源强差异较大,而同化反演源的空间分布和强度均接近于上述2012年排放源,较好反映出重点地区的高污染源分布特征.本文研究结果将为改进重霾污染过程的空气质量预报、减小自下而上建立的排放源清单不确定性、评估SO₂、NO_x等排放源的影响效应以及不同气象条件下区域排放源的动态调控等提供新技术途径和研究思路.     

A data-driven allocation tool for in-kind resources distributed by a state health department

Objective: The objective of this study was to leverage a state health department's operational data to allocate in-kind resources (children's car seats) to counties, with the proposition that need-based allocation could ultimately improve public health outcomes.

Methods: This study used a retrospective analysis of administrative data on car seats distributed to counties statewide by the Georgia Department of Public Health and development of a need-based allocation tool (presented as interactive supplemental digital content, adaptable to other types of in-kind public health resources) that relies on current county-level injury and sociodemographic data.

Results: Car seat allocation using public health data and a need-based formula resulted in substantially different recommended allocations to individual counties compared to historic distribution.

Conclusions: Results indicate that making an in-kind public health resource like car seats universally available results in a less equitable distribution of that resource compared to deliberate allocation according to public health need. Public health agencies can use local data to allocate in-kind resources consistent with health objectives; that is, in a manner offering the greatest potential health impact. Future analysis can determine whether the change to a more equitable allocation of resources is also more efficient, resulting in measurably improved public health outcomes.     

固定床活性炭干法烟气脱硫过程的模拟研究

采用流程模拟软件对固定床活性炭干法烟气脱硫过程进行模拟,并用已公开发表的文献实验数据进行了模型验证。模型验证结果与文献值吻合较好。利用该模型对活性炭干法烟气脱硫过程进行模拟研究,探讨了脱硫过程中床层高度、进口烟气中SO_2质量浓度、吸附温度等工艺参数对SO_2脱除率的影响。模拟结果表明:随床层高度增加,SO_2脱除率提高;随进口烟气中SO_2质量浓度增加,SO_2脱除率提高;在吸附温度为100~160℃的范围内,随吸附温度升高,SO_2脱除率逐渐下降。     

基于Delft3D模型的三峡航道环保疏浚水质数值模拟研究

以忠县皇华城河段为例,利用Delft3D数学模型对三峡航道环保疏的水质变化进行了数值模拟。结果表明:疏浚工程的进行对河道水质环境影响比较明显,随水流方向污染物质量浓度上升速率变慢,在疏浚点污染物质量浓度上升245 mg/L,疏浚点下方4 km处污染物质量浓度上升约为20 mg/L,河段末端污染物质量浓度上升约为14 mg/L;疏浚工程结束后,河段的水体水质能够较快得到恢复,离疏浚点越近恢复得越快,疏浚结束1 d后污染物质量浓度基本已恢复到本底值,疏浚工程对水环境的影响可以较快得到恢复。     

空空导弹电源模拟负载设计与热仿真分析

目的筛选得到最优模拟负载设计方案。方法首先对采用功率电阻实现的电源模拟负载结构进行功率和阻值关系计算,通过计算确定两套功率电阻阻值方案,然后根据空空导弹电源考核要求设计了电源模拟负载,对满足功率要求的两套阻值方案进行热仿真分析,对比选取最优的阻值方案。结果对基于所选方案制作的模拟负载进行了热试验评估,热仿真结果与热试验结果对比偏差最大为2℃。结论数据分析表明,热仿真所选模拟负载设计方案合理可行。     

生物源挥发性有机化合物排放及其在空气质量模式的应用研究

综述了近30年来国内外关于生物源挥发性有机化合物（ BVOCs ）排放及其应用的研究进展,包括BVOCs排放的化学组成、影响排放的主要环境因素和排放模式的建立及其应用等。重点探讨BVOCs排放在空气质量模拟应用中的重要性,提出一些值得注意的关键点。最后从BVOCs排放模式机理、基础数据和大气化学输送模式对BVOCs排放处理等方向进行了展望。     

Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment

This research analyses the application of spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for GIS (Geographic Information System) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) within a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment regarding flooding in the Salzach river catchment in Austria. The research methodology is based on a spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of GIS-CDA for an assessment of the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate how a unified approach of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be applied to minimise the associated uncertainty within each dimension of the vulnerability assessment. The methodology proposed for achieving this objective is composed of four main steps. The first step is computing criteria weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the second step, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to calculate the uncertainties associated with AHP weights. In the third step, the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is employed in the form of a model-independent method of output variance decomposition, in which the variability of the different vulnerability assessments is apportioned to every criterion weight, generating one first-order (S) and one total effect (ST) sensitivity index map per criterion weight. Finally, in the fourth step, an ordered weighted averaging method is applied to model the final vulnerability maps. The results of this research demonstrate the robustness of spatially explicit GSA for minimising the uncertainty associated with GIS-MCDA models. Based on these results, we conclude that applying the variance-based GSA enables assessment of the importance of each input factor for the results of the GIS-MCDA method, both spatially and statistically, thus allowing us to introduce and recommend GIS-based GSA as a useful methodology for minimising the uncertainty of GIS-MCDA.     

平板模型对液化石油气连续泄漏扩散模拟分析与探讨

对目前主要的气体泄漏扩散模拟计算模型进行比较分析,选择平板模型用于液化石油气连续泄漏扩散模拟计算,运用假设中型和大型泄漏的计算实例结果,通过与挪威船级社(DNV)开发的SAFETI风险评价软件的计算结果进行对比分析,可以得出:在静风条件下,平板模型对液化石油气连续泄漏扩散模拟的准确性高。随着云团扩散密度降低,平板模型计算偏差逐步加大,且计算偏差随风速的增大而变大,因而利用平板模型进行模拟计算的结果应予修正。     

复杂山区地形水利水电液氨施工泄漏研究

水电工程中液氨泄漏扩散对周围居民的危害很大,疏散区域划分成为重要的防护措施,但在复杂地形条件下确立准确的疏散区域成为难题。为解决这一难题,通过现场调查所得数据,采用大涡模拟方法对泄漏气体扩散进行模拟,分析氨的泄漏扩散在大气中的扩散规律,研究泄漏气体的扩散动力学演化过程及影响范围,计算泄漏事故中不同时间段影响范围,得出时间序列上的爆炸危险区域和有毒气体影响区域,最后总结分析制定安全防护距离的影响因素,为周边居民安全防护策略提供参考。     

多点网格流速在线测量方法研究

烟气流速是CEMS监测的重要参数,其准确性直接关系到污染物排放总量。由于受安装场地的限制,同一烟道截面流速分布不均匀,单点测量难以真实反映断面流真实流速。根据某电厂流速监测现状,结合Fluent软件对烟道流场进行模拟分析和手工网格采样理论,提出多点网格在线流速测量方法,明显提高流速测量精度和代表性。